Photo courtesy: PCO
BongBong Marcos is going around the globe seeking military alliance for a war he and his saber-rattling local and foreign advisers are concocting.
His perceived enemy is of course China. This is rooted by Marcos wanting to pursue and reclaim the Scarborough Shoal using an arbitral ruling that the island belongs to the Philippines. China, which did not take part in the Permanent Court of Arbitration dubbed that verdict “null and void”.
But it is easier said than done. Recall that in June 2012 then President Benigno Aquino ordered the withdrawal of the Philippine Coast Guard in the islet which on one side is also occupied by the Chinese Coast Guard. While an on-coming typhoon was given as a reason for the withdrawal there was this speculation that it was meant to de-escalate the tension in that part of the South China Sea.
Some quarters also claimed that the pullout of the coast guard vessels followed after then Sen. Antonio Trillanes was sent by the late President Aquino as a backchannel negotiator. For whatever reasons there maybe or coastguards left and China thereafter occupied the entire Scarborough shoal. What Aquino and Trillanes decided was never known. Then Senator Juan Ponce Enrile did not hide his misgivings on Trillanes and up to what extent was his authority. What surprised us later was that the Philippine Coast Guards pulled out and the rest is history.
Tension remained in the disputed island with the Filipino fishermen this time unable to fish in the rich fishing ground around the island. Only when Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte was elected President that the problem was addressed. Duterte’s foreign policy dictum, “Friends to all, enemies to none”, and, bilateral talks with China, did the conflict subsided and our fishermen were free to fish again in the Scarborough.
Aside from the Scarborough shoal other groups of islands like the Spratlys are all found in the South China Sea and subject to multiple claims the includes China, Philippines and Vietnam among others. While we are too busy with Scarborough we lost the chance to claim other islets in the Spratlys. Sad.
But sadder is the fact that the present leadership is trading our territory and dignity in favor of a promise of military assistance in case of war with China in dispute over a rocky protuberance in the West Philippines Sea/South China Sea. In his first months in office as President, Marcos opened the Philippines to nine EDCA military bases for the United States of America. Just recently he awarded USA, the biggest economy in the world, zero tariffs on its exports to the Philippines and got a 19% tariff on the Philippine products entering the US in return.
As I write this piece Marcos is in India for a military alliance.
Which begs the question: Does BongBong Marcos really believe the US and India will go to war for the Philippines disputes over Scarborough? Is he not aware that while he cuddles close to Uncle Sam, President Donald Trump is preparing an entourage to China to maximize trade opportunities in the biggest consumer market in the world. Is he and his defense advisers not aware that while India and China have border conflicts they have in fact put premium on restoration of accord and normal relationships. Are the war freaks in this administration ignorant of the fact that China is the biggest trading partner of India?
That is realpolitik.
What made Marcos think that China will invade Philippines? For a nation that freed itself from the quagmire of abject poverty for just over two decades and now ranks second to the US in terms of the number of people who are millionaires, does Marcos have the notion that the Chinese people will entertain the idea of going to war with the Philippines? Why would China create conflict in the South China Sea which is the main trade route of Chinese goods that are sold worldwide?
In addition it will be worthwhile for President Marcos to absorb lesson from the Chinese adage to calm his nerves: “Do not burn the house of your next door neighbor”.
